Yup, good guess. Buy oil, commodities and China.
Of course Mr Rogers, with his very long term investment horizon is not going to be a shocking talk, but some things really stood out about his presentation at the ETF Securities conference in NYC.
One was the recommendation to a slick MBA type, to move to Iowa and start the first Lamborghini dealer. They're all going to move there from downtown Manhattan he said since that's where the money will be made.
The other was that he's been reading the NY press the last few days while in town and feels they're overly pessimistic, the world's economy is much healthier than they're making it sound.
He also mentioned that he would short the US Dollar long term if it rises short term, and bonds are the next big bubble to burst.
Questions to His Theories Regarding Commodities
Jim's theory that since the world is at its lowest food reserves in a long, long time means that agricultural commodities will rise for the long term, can be refuted by postulating that this low reserve level may be due to the world's comfort in its ability to quickly produce that food using modern technology or by imagining that the this technology will improve as needed.
His theories on oil reserve figures being imaginary and a clear trend towards oil reserves depletion also can be refuted by invoking possible technological progress on alternative energies.
In general, both theories assume 1 thing: that demand verses supply stays high for these commodities. When he reminded us of Econ 101's theory of supply and demand, perhaps we should also remember the theories of elastic demand - at some change in price people will consume less, and of the invisible hand - supply will improve as demand drives focused effort and improvement.
THE ECONOMY IS BETTER??
The second point he made worries me much more. I've been of the opinion that things are overvalued, and to hear someone who knows value and knows it globally suggest otherwise makes me wonder.
It certainly lends credence to Yag's assertion, echoed by some of the people I met over the last couple of conference days, that the downtrend doesn't get going in earnest till Q1 2010. The market just kind of drifts higher till then on a sea of liquidity.
3 comments:
Selloff here or BUST!
Now or never!
We have a gap up to 1080 here at the open - perfect for a selloff.
Am I the only one who has noticed the S&P has traded within a 10 point range for 5 straight days? Strings like this have only occurred at market tops since Summer 2007.
And the 5 day average volume is the lowest since early September 2008.
Its like the calm before the storm......
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