Thursday, July 16, 2009

Simultaniously Right and Wrong, Again....


So much for defining the new downtrend with a lower top at 910-920.... Yesterday's strength takes us back to the drawing board. So, I was wrong about the rally's stall point but right about my trades: I was looking for a reason to exit the long side and yesterday's huge volume and rising vix on a strong market along with my expectations of resistance were good enough to take profits.

Yesterday's rally blew right past that level, and in my opinion raises the odds that we're going to see a range bound sideways market for a little while, which would be a great trading opportunity.

I don't expect the market to break into new 2009 highs and am looking to today's action to indicate whether we have a range trade or a re-defining of the downtrend.

Fyi, sold my double long etf's at the close yesterday, waiting for a clearer picture to go short.

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