But I'd suggest still right...
The market clearly got significantly past where I expected it to turn down, and in the face of clear deterioration in economic reality and likely path.
Still, I'd have been better off having waited. Looking at the mid-term picture, its clear to me that we're still in the range of resistance and congestion and I'm still expecting 880 in the near term (1 month or so) and 810 perhaps by the end of the quarter.
The risk is that I'm wrong on this mid-term outlook and the market could get to 1000 on the SPX. That would hurt my bearish portfolio...
Looking at the shorter term picture, it's likely we'll have a stop at 910 before the 880 goal short term. And 930 is a key point to break to confirm my bearish thesis.
1 comment:
Looks like the .382 Fib retracement level of the entire drop takes us to 1014 on the S&P so we just need to hold out until then next week.
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