Trades For Dec 28th

I'd short more AAPL and GMCR here, both are super extended. I'd buy AIXG here. 1/4 positions all.

Follow on Trades

Buy 1/4 position in AIXG for a bounce to 37.5, strong stock in a strong area.

Would add 1/4 pos shorts to MHK, GMCR and PALM. Start 1/4 pos short in AAPL b/c of valuation reflecting expectations of perfection and the hype of a January announcement.

Looking to short oil on a rally to ~39.5. Trend is still down, weak economy.

(I'll start posting a table once this gets a little more complex.)

Trades to Start Off

MHK can be shorted near 49, here. I would short, in a 10 mil book, 5k shares at 48.67 for a quarter position.
PALM I would have to have a quarter position for earnings tonight. 25k shares. 11.50
GMCR is going to continue its consolidation here, so would trade it here 66.53 down to 60. I'd short 4000 shares.
BKS can trade for a small bounce. Buy 10k shares at 18.80 to sell at 22.


Disclaimer: This is for my own notes and entertainment, and completely not for any other purposes. Not a solicitation, or advice.

GRMN: How Garmin Can Be Worth MULTIPLES Of What It Is Now

Yes, I am a big believer that GPS devices like GRMN will be absolutely cannibalized by the Droid and other phones.

A few caveats though: the company is flush with cash, has no debt and a strong operating team. At some price, people will prefer a dedicated device, just as they do for other things, at the right price.
At $32, it is priced right for the risks ahead.

My Idea For A HUGE LEAP AND A $200 PRICE ON GRMN:

Make a 7" Garmin that does GPS, links to the phone via Bluetooth for live updates, and MOST IMPORTANTLY: becomes the screen for the phone!!! I would pay $100 for a device that served as a large screen for my phone and did dedicated GPS.

Wouldn't you?

The Look That Made Tiger In-Famous

Just saw this at the mall. Looks like "He Just Did Do It"!
D'oh!

The Internet Forgives All Smartphone Sins

Think about it, once you have a device that is as net-centric as the Droid, it becomes a matter of choosing a site to provide you with choice. The move is towards dumb terminals with great screens that make phone calls.

Theme: Short AAPL

Wrote this on 10/20, same points apply, will update it soon (to include grmn, rimm, palm, vz, etc) :


Short AAPL


AT&T's earnings this morning point to a dominance of the iPhone that
is both amazing and possibly priced in. Apple seems to be firing on
all cylinders, computers, ipods, phones, media, margins. Not a cheap
stock, in p/e/g, p/b, p/c, so possibly priced in.

The only competitor that has a comparably loyal following and
amazingly well designed products is Google. At some point, Android
will be a winner, even if by a little and that will crush Apple's
valuation metrics for that business and put a chink in otherwise
spotless armor.


Interestingly, Apple provides both quinessential examples of either
outcome: the iPhone may be the 'iPod' of the cell phone market and
dominate market share in a very competitive world with many argueably
better mousetraps.

Or Android will be like the iMac, a superior product with tiny market
share but that still makes a dent in the leader's dominance.



Flys In the Ointment:

Leaders tend to stay leaders for a long time. Network effects may
have taken enough hold to perpetuate.
Their mac acceptance may continue to go through the roof.
Earnings growth and stability may demand a growing premium in a world
increasingly barren of both.


Technicals:

Stock is still on a tear, making new highs. Extended, though not safe
to short yet simply because of action. Idealy the market would turn
lower, Apple would break it's 10ma, but by then alot of money has been
made.
Can short a little here, wait for confirmation or market crack.
Basically a high beta play on the SPX.

The Droid is A Game Changer

Just got mine yesterday. Love it! I NEVER buy anything when it first comes out, and take much pride in being tech savvy enough to not be an early adopter. But I went out and got this the day my plan ran out, because its that big a leap forward.

The phone is sold out at many stores. Demand is stronger than I would've imagined. The operating system is not polished but is powerful.

Google will move to voice command on everything, and operating system will constantly be improving.

This is basically Google OS on a tiny laptop. They decided to not bother with yester-year's platform, the PC and are moving straight for the jugular - domination of the mobile communications platform.

Open to the world for development and customization.

This changes everything and I'm going to get on this bandwagon.

Expecting A Bounce

Of the mildly wounded, possibly dying cat variety!

If any rally today manages to exceed yesterday's high, at 1053, we're looking at ~1070 as the next stop. Support at 1033 is substantial, with more important support at 1014 and very strong support at 1005.

Clearly, the risk reward for a short trade at this point is not very strong, on a day to day basis. We'd short into rallies since in the mid term (3 months), being short makes the best sense it has in a long while.

We Have Arrived

You know us Indians have really become part of the fabric of America when this type of thing gets in the Journal:

But word around Silicon Valley was that Galleon had insiders at many tech companies, a so-called Indian mafia of assistant treasurers and comptrollers (though Raj is Sri Lankan). Many assumed that's how Galleon beat the market, eventually growing to $7 billion in assets.


Sigh. Between that and the obligatory Indian role in every TV show, it's clear we're just one of the crowd now!

Very Encouraging for the Bears

This market's inability to get above 1072, and the break just now of 1040 bodes well for an extended drop. Rallies will now be sold.

Not Much of a GDP Bounce

If we're not able to get above 1060 before breaking yest's lows, 1040ish, Bears will have a drool-worthy drop.
A break above 1060, and then 1072 would prime us for a trading range.

The SPX Finds No Bounce, And GS Breaks the 50ma

There is a surprising lack of support at 1055-1060, although as of this writing the SPX seems to have at least paused a little below that range.
If we do see the bounce, recent action leads me to believe it won't break 1075 before hitting new lows.

This, along with GS (which to me has been THE bellweather for this rally) breaking it's 50MA, gives me a few hopeful signs. Another close (assuming today closes below) would really help my theory that this is THE break of the bull trend.

The CONfidence Game Might Be Over

Get it??
The 10am numbers this morning were another surprising sign of stress in a key leg holding this market up.

Encouraging, Though We've Heard This Song Before

The market's ability to break recent support and generally act odd is encouraging to Bears though this is very reminiscent of a couple of such episodes during the rally from March.

Each pullback does become more relevant, and this one, yet again, could be the one.

We'll be watching to see how the market acts at the mean reversion of a very steep uptrend, at 1055. I'd expect a bounce from there, and if that does not get above 1075 before going below 1055 again....

Well, no use getting that excited yet!

Boredom is Endemic

There's not much to say about this market, mostly because there's not much in the way of change in trajectory. Amazing to watch the entire financial blogosphere trickle to maintenance posts (like this one).

What's left to say?? There's no overhead resistance to 1220 on the SPX and the only target in the short term is the mean reversion within the sharp uptrend, to 1055, ONLY if 1075 is broken! Otherwise its on and upwards.

Bor-ring!

SPX 1086 is key today

If we can close below that, that'll be the first break of a more-than-1-day low in about 3 wks....

So, Jim Rogers Said At Yesterday's Conference.....

Yup, good guess. Buy oil, commodities and China.

Of course Mr Rogers, with his very long term investment horizon is not going to be a shocking talk, but some things really stood out about his presentation at the ETF Securities conference in NYC.

One was the recommendation to a slick MBA type, to move to Iowa and start the first Lamborghini dealer. They're all going to move there from downtown Manhattan he said since that's where the money will be made.

The other was that he's been reading the NY press the last few days while in town and feels they're overly pessimistic, the world's economy is much healthier than they're making it sound.

He also mentioned that he would short the US Dollar long term if it rises short term, and bonds are the next big bubble to burst.

Questions to His Theories Regarding Commodities

Jim's theory that since the world is at its lowest food reserves in a long, long time means that agricultural commodities will rise for the long term, can be refuted by postulating that this low reserve level may be due to the world's comfort in its ability to quickly produce that food using modern technology or by imagining that the this technology will improve as needed.

His theories on oil reserve figures being imaginary and a clear trend towards oil reserves depletion also can be refuted by invoking possible technological progress on alternative energies.

In general, both theories assume 1 thing: that demand verses supply stays high for these commodities. When he reminded us of Econ 101's theory of supply and demand, perhaps we should also remember the theories of elastic demand - at some change in price people will consume less, and of the invisible hand - supply will improve as demand drives focused effort and improvement.

THE ECONOMY IS BETTER??

The second point he made worries me much more. I've been of the opinion that things are overvalued, and to hear someone who knows value and knows it globally suggest otherwise makes me wonder.

It certainly lends credence to Yag's assertion, echoed by some of the people I met over the last couple of conference days, that the downtrend doesn't get going in earnest till Q1 2010. The market just kind of drifts higher till then on a sea of liquidity.

Being a Bear is Easier

Right?
There's so much more capital that is long only by mandate; there are so many more eyes looking for big winners; the natural state of the mind is to look for growth and believe stories propounded by protagonists.

Almost by definition, any given market environment must have pockets of overvaluation borne through optimism and a lack of capital and eyes looking for incongruous storylines. So, being a bear must be easier, right?

This Should About Do It

I'm pretty sure the resistance overhead will make itself felt here at ~1050. Looking for signs that this is going to be a reversal day, as per Dr Brett's methodology. (http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/)

Confirmation of the bear trend would require today's morning strength to reverse (pre-10:30 would be best) and 1040 to be broken. If we trade above 1065, stick a fork in the bearish move and gird your loins.

Will This Trend Be As Trendy As The Last 6 Months ???!!

That in my mind is the big question. Yes, we have a overvalued market. Yes, we have the news turning in the face of talking head cheerleaders. Yes, we have the most anticipated market drop ever (kidding).

But do the bears never get a chance to reload, much like the bulls didn't in March? Could this bear move be like the bull and start that way, chop a bit and end very trendy?

Watching for clues, will keep you posted.


I'm expecting a bounce to ~1050, but this move could be more trendy!

They DO Ring a Bell at the Top!!!!

And his name rhymes with Tag!

No kidding, this guy has the most amazing track record of calling tops and bottoms. He is the ultimate contrary indicator (at least his personal investing, jury's still out on the professional side.) Literally one of the hardest working guys I know, very bright. Does tons of research and therefore has been bearish the entire way up citing all the best reasons to fade the rally. Till one day...

This is an email I got from him:
Chrystal ball say….



Investors getting more bullish. I think we are 2-4 months away from a “top” but not yet there.


Guess what day? Sept 23rd at 8am. SPX: 1071

Whoohoo! Admittedly, I'm jumping the gun as to whether he's right or not, but the mid term has been a pretty good trade :-) !

How Crowded is Crowded?

On the one hand, everyone I know is short. And everyone on the sideline wants to short. So clearly a crowded trade right? One that could easily become the shadow demand for equities on any dip, only propelling them higher, right??

Well, yes and no. Crowded shorts could raise prices, though that ignores the effect of the value : price spread.
And it makes less sense if you consider every 1m shares short is 1m shares someone is 'artificially/additionally' long. Shares HELD by A are shorted by B to the buyer C. C will sell long at some point and B will buy short. The only reason this should have any effect is the velocity of the shares coming to the market. Right?

So, it 'could' keep 'crowding higher', EXCEPT that the numbers seem to point to a low level of short interest.

As beleaguered as the bear crowd must feel, the truth eventually hits. The only thing to be mindful of, is the chance the bears could be wrong.... and the truth might already be out (ie, V shaped recovery.) Maybe.


Lastly, the market is at yet another crossroads since a break above 1072 or a break below 1040/1035 will likely dictate the mid-term direction to follow.

To torture the Charlie Brown analogy even more: Charlie is about a foot from the ball and Lucy looks like she had no intention of pulling the ball away. Looks like.

Well, That Was Unusual

Saw an interesting study recently that said the SPX hasnt had any periods of more than 6 hours (HOURS!) of non-profitability. Ie, you could buy AT ANY POINT since March and be up within 6 hours!!

Lately we've been seeing more of these teaser pauses in the market, and I'd be interested to see if yesterday's peak lasts for more than six hours. If so, I'll imitate Charlie Brown and believe that THIS time is the time.

link to article:
(will find it, check back later)

Just One More Time

Waiting for the market to dip feels like Charlie Brown wanting to kick the ball.
Sheesh.

Completely Inured!

What's left to say about this market?? We've collectively become completely inured to a market which relentlessly, ceaselessly rises in the face of deteriorating reality and a growing list of reasons why it can't go higher. Historic economic and pricing conditions are no match for a melt-up, so far.

The only thing I can say is it's stunning how many stock charts are at multi-multi-year resistance levels... not that that's any reason for this market to pause, much less to drop!

TAKE A LOOK AT THE POINT AND FIGURE CHART ABOVE. It's the NYSE Bullish Percent, or the percentage of stocks in the NYSE that are in bullish charts (roughly) - it's at the highest its been since at least 1999!!! (the charting function only goes back that far, not sure about before that.) Not that that will matter. GRRRRRR!

Still waiting for any hint of a change in bullish direction.

Getting closer and closer

To the top, by definition, as we rally...

The relentless rise continues, and the market has clearly gotten ahead of reality (and it has for about 100 spx points!) but the beauty of bubbles is that they always go for much longer than you can imagine.

Not sure when the dip happens, as there is not alot on the charts to help define that, now we're left to wait for the fundamentals of this economy to be felt.

Waiting for a break of any support to start to look for a bear trend... 1035, then 1018ish.


BTW, Aditya had a very interesting piece of analysis on the last post's comments section, check it out and let us know if you have any thoughts on it (in the comments there, plz)

Bored Of This Market Yet?

The week before the holidays seemed to be yet another bear tease - diet peanut butter if you will.
And the last couple of days have seemed like the resumption of the same old relentless bull run.

Not so.

Markets are well known to look for the maximum pain that could be inflicted on the maximum number of people. Thus the dumb money/smart money divide. The market's nature is to build bubbles in complacency and outlook (also called a meme) and then to burst them spectacularly.

This recent action is yet another piece of the topping process - conditioning investors to expect rallies. I'd say we're about there. Think about it - what would surprise you the most right here - it would be a plunge.

Last week's action had all the marks of a truly strong trend, one of which my colleague Elliot pointed out - good news was met with selling. I'm perplexed that this week has had a strong trend, on the bullish side. But I'm of the opinion this is the last bit of conditioning.

Dips Will Be Bought

Funny how the market breaks just when everyone has finally made the transition from 'sell rallys' to 'buy dips'...

This is a nice start to the day to the nearest support at 980ish, and likely to break - the big problem, for bears, is that the 'buy dips' will likely keep the market from a true free-fall, at least for the first few failed rallies.

I expect the first support at 980, then 970 and would be surprised if 970 doesn't give us our first rally attempt.

Riddle Me This

Todays numbers are being taken as a green shoot. Not sure I understand that.

The simple fact is that productivity went up (people were worked better (most people say 'harder', I'd say thats not all of it)), while unit labor costs went down sharply (which means people are being paid less, per unit produced, plain and simple) and hours fell.

This sounds like a bad thing for consumers, no?? Especially the masses that live at the edge. That's really bad, right?

Unequivocally Wrong

So much for any idea of where the market is going. Today could be the oft hoped for 'false break out and failure to big drops'.
More later, perhaps with a new format.

Ok, more than a little early

But I'd suggest still right...
The market clearly got significantly past where I expected it to turn down, and in the face of clear deterioration in economic reality and likely path.

Still, I'd have been better off having waited. Looking at the mid-term picture, its clear to me that we're still in the range of resistance and congestion and I'm still expecting 880 in the near term (1 month or so) and 810 perhaps by the end of the quarter.

The risk is that I'm wrong on this mid-term outlook and the market could get to 1000 on the SPX. That would hurt my bearish portfolio...


Looking at the shorter term picture, it's likely we'll have a stop at 910 before the 880 goal short term. And 930 is a key point to break to confirm my bearish thesis.

Shorted, a little early perhaps

I went long the double short ETF's mid-afternoon yesterday, kind of jumping the gun. One of my unspoken rules is to wait till the end of the day on trending days (like yesterday clearly was from the beginning) to trade.... The best times I find for mid-term trend changes are early and late in the trading day. That's when most mid-term peaks and bottoms happen...

So, expecting the market to either form a range or resume defining the downtrend, either way not expecting a rally to new 2009 highs. If that does happen, I'd expect it to be a fake-out and to fail quickly, though again not expecting it.

Just to be clear, I prefer to trade for 1+ month outlooks, not this quick fire stuff that I've been doing. But I don't dictate the timing of opportunities and take them as Mr. Market gives them. Paradoxically, the recent trends have been well worth trading even while the VIX is hitting new lows from since the LEH fiasco.

So, as I might've mentioned a month or so ago, I feel the market is done with the big move off the bottom, and will resume a downtrend. My recent bullish trade was a opportunity to profit from a short term reversion in what will be a bear leg and expecting ~810 to be in the cards this quarter or so.

Simultaniously Right and Wrong, Again....

So much for defining the new downtrend with a lower top at 910-920.... Yesterday's strength takes us back to the drawing board. So, I was wrong about the rally's stall point but right about my trades: I was looking for a reason to exit the long side and yesterday's huge volume and rising vix on a strong market along with my expectations of resistance were good enough to take profits.

Yesterday's rally blew right past that level, and in my opinion raises the odds that we're going to see a range bound sideways market for a little while, which would be a great trading opportunity.

I don't expect the market to break into new 2009 highs and am looking to today's action to indicate whether we have a range trade or a re-defining of the downtrend.

Fyi, sold my double long etf's at the close yesterday, waiting for a clearer picture to go short.

Looking to sell and short

The market will probably get to 910 this week and quite possibly this morning. If so, I'll be selling my double long etf's and looking to buy double short etf's on further rallies and as the downtrend continues to define itself.

Quietly noisy

The danger in using a range like the one proceeding the March rally, the period in October btwn 1000 and 840 and back, is that it is a reflex move and not indicative of anything other than a market trying to find itself...
In direct contrast of that would be a period like we the last three days, where the market moved much more intraday than daily - lots of noise, but the signal is flat.

Anyway, back to guesswork. The support at 880 simultaneously failed and succeeded. Intraday, we hit the aforementioned 870 which I also stated I would view as a failure of support at 880 and a call for 845. Nonetheless, the 880 range held strongly at each close, so I'm still waiting for a move to the next lower top in the new downtrend, around 910.

Fyi, went long those ultra etf's on Wed at 12:30ish.

Back InThe Saddle

(click to enlarge)

Hope you had a good Fourth holiday, and it looks like the market is back to making some moves.

It looks like I'm going to get that bounce at support at 880, which I've been waiting the SP500 to get down to for a while.

In addition, the most recent peak at 930 looks like that possible lower top I've been waiting for and the beginnings of the new downtrend.

I'm looking for confirmation of a new downtrend in this next bounce, which I'd expect to get to 910-920 sometime soon.

On the flip-side, if 880 fails (ie we get to 870) then we're looking at to the next area of congestion, at ~845. That would be interesting and call for a review of the nascent downtrend. That would raise the possibility that this first drop is going to be like the first rise in March, at a quicker than trend pace before the real mid-term trend is defined.

Fyi, sold 75% of my double short ETF's at close yest, haven't gone long yet, in cash.

Crazy is almost a side effect of Genius

Luckily, in my mind, Michael's crazy period wasn't long enough to destroy the memory of genius. The music lives on forever.

The New Downtrend?

Somehow I don't think the last series of tops (950, 920, 910) are going to define this downtrend. A couple of posts ago I was hoping for a series of lower tops to define the downtrend's rate of descent, if you recall.

At this point, a break of 888 would strengthen that thesis. The alternate thesis I would expect a bit more is a trading range starting to form (sideways for the summer??) btwn 880 and 920. That would be a nice set of trades.

I'm expecting a bounce at 880 and hold 910-920 to be the big resistance.

Maybe daily is too frequent an update

Especially on days like yesterday... you can't even see it on the chart above! (without clicking on the chart to see it full size)

Same levels, expecting a hard bounce off of the 880 area, with 900 minor and 910-920 major resistance.

Today's verbiage from the Fed just got even more anticipated, given the Swiss situation.

So far, so good

The drop has been relentless, and the 880 area looks like a done deal today. I'd expect a modest bounce at that point, to 905-910 or so. Today's market behavior in the first hour, and the internals all day will determine if we see the bounce and how high.

Interesting thought

(click to see full size image)

I was reading the comments on one of my favorite trading related blogs, www.slopeofhope.com, (a favorite more for the community of commenters than the excellent blog itself) and one of the comments struck a cord. It postulated that the market's recent rally from March had one characteristic in particular that might be repeated in this new down-leg. It is that there were few opportunities to 'buy the dips' before the bulk of it was over. And this bear leg may just have the opposite, where everyone waits for an opportunity to sell or sell short, and it doesn't appear for a long while..... it could.

Back to today, I am stunned at the strength of this selling. I was expecting a bounce to be a little stronger, and I find it hard to believe Friday's high is the next lower top, but now (at 10:40) that the low of last wk has been breached, it might be.... we'll know in the next bounce if these peak's will define the downtrend.

I don't think it will, ultimately. The rally off the lows in March started with a very steep climb, but the sustainable trend was defined later in the month at more reasonable rate of assent. If this bear leg does the same, then the rate of this first descent will moderate and the sustainable trend will be defined later, with a slower rate of descent.

Still waiting on 880-890, with a first bounce to ~900-910.

Defining the downtrend

Today's rally has stalled below Tue's levels, close to the 930 level mentioned yesterday, and there's a small chance that it goes as far as 940. I'd have to revisit my entire premise if that level gets taken out.

In the meantime, this bounce to the 930-935 area could very likely be the next lower top, starting to define the downtrend, very preliminarily.

Still looking for 880-890 soon.

Ditto

Yet again this morning, so far, 920 established itself as an important resistance. The next level is now 930, in addition to the formidable 940 mentioned yesterday.

The recent weakness suggests a revised target near term of 880-890. We almost hit 900 yesterday, but I'd suggest we'll get closer to 890 soon.

When it ABSOLUTELY has to be there....

...you send the message by Fedex. And the refusal by Fedex to give guidance on the year, due to lack of visibility, is a message that says it all.

I love the idea of using delivery of goods as a real time proxy for the economic activity of this country. Sadly, that's not a green shoot right now.

Anyway....

When a trend has been broken as forcefully as this, especially given the strength of that trend, it helps to looks at a longer term picture of the market to determine likely ranges. Normally, that longer term might be 3-5 years, but in this case we're in such uncharted territory (get it? uncharted...haha) that a one year look is all that could be relevant.

(click any chart to see it full size)

It's obvious that the 920 area has been an important point for this market over the last year... except for a day or so, it acted as a ceiling for the market before a major drop, and then on the recovery, in May, of that drop. After acting as a floor for the last couple of weeks, it will now act as a resistance, with 940 being a very important resistance level.
The near term target is 890-900, as posted a couple of days ago. A bear's dream would be to have 880 taken out, but I doubt that happens before we test 915-920 again....

One day doesn't a trend make

But it sure can break one!

Differently from the day-long breaks of May, this one added a break of nearest support. Today's market rally should stall out at 930, with a smaller chance to go as high as 940...

The next step overall is to look to define a downtrend, similar to the recent bull run, though that won't happen for at least a week, since it will take a lower high (than 955) and a lower low.

Finally, (maybe).

The good thing about trends is that they can't last forever.
This might be the day where we break the lower trendline, and stay below it for the day. Of course we did that for a few days in late May, only to resume this bear market rally.
Valuations and the good news crescendo in this instance leads me to believe this trendline break will be the one to end the bear market rally and start to establish a new downtrend.
Once the 920 level is breached, I'd expect the near term target to be 890-900. If...

Another brick

Yesterday's breakout found no sponsorship and failed.

If we spend the day below the bottom trendline at 940, that would be a nice positive for bears.
It would bolster the case, along with employment figures, retail sales, energy prices, huge govt debt, rising rates, etc etc etc....

(In case it isn't obvious, the chart above is the SP 500 in 1 hr bars, from Jan to present.)

Thumb twiddling

Nice little tease by the market - briefly breaking the downtrend is not enough, we need to close below it. Even if it did close below, its too late to confirm the breakdown from late May, in my opinion - we'd need to see more weakness to raise confidence on the trend change.
One day the break will happen and we will be looking for the beginning of the downtrending bear market to be defined.
Today, anything below 935 would be a positive for bears.

The Problem with Trends

The problem with trends is that they work till they don't. And this one is still chugging along while most of us are expecting a break.... any day now.....any day.

So, still waiting for a trend break. Bounced off bottom trendline, today making another attempt to break out from the 952 resistance - maybe this time it doesn't FAIL and bounces down from the midline at ~965.

Anyway, the bottom trendline at 932 is the one to watch for....

Fail

That possible run to 950 happened, and FAILED.
Today's drop at the open will either bounce off the 925 uptrend line, or break it - which frankly is overdue....

If so, the next support range is 900-920, which if / when it fails would call for 880. I won't even go into the next level on a break of 880, yet.

This market is taking the bull side

Well, what the market didn't do yesterday (hit 950) it's going to do this morning. Each day that the market stays in this uptrend makes the breakdown last week more suspect.
Today's action could stop in the 950-955 region, the next stop is either the top band at 980ish or back down to the uptrend at 920. The bears (like me, since I see the market as overvalued) would need to see a break of 920 soon!

Same question, next day

Yesterday was a successful test of the 920 uptrend and today will be a continuation day to the uptrend, since markets will rally at the open.

Today could answer the question, depending on how it does in the 950 region, which is the short term resistance level. Again, waiting for a break of the 920 level to confirm what might have been the beginning last wk of a new bear leg down to the 800 area, which I believe would be a first target.

Probably best said by Dr Brett, one of my favorite blogs on the Interwebs :
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/06/preopening-briefing-maintaining.html

Is last wk's SPX break real?

Watch the drop to 920 as an indication of whether the break in trend last wk was real... this tells us whether we're in for a bear leg or continuation of uptrend.
(click the chart to see it full size)