The next bubble

I'm always wondering where the next bubble may be, since I see that most wealth is accumulated by catching the mega-trends when they happen....

Interesting take on a possible next - bubble:
http://www.harpers.org/archive/2008/02/0081908

And a take on the other side of that coin, making sure you avoid being on the wrong side of mega-trends, from Pimco's Bill Gross:
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2008/IO+March+2008.htm

YOU MUST READ THIS PAPER!!!

Anyone interested in risk, uncertainty, randomness, Black Swans, quant or investing needs to read this paper by UBS's Ineichen.

I must warn you though, this is a page turner - you will not be able to put it down. It is a thought provoking, head scratching, illuminating 46 page piece of research that will make you go 'hmmm'.

This paper has earned a spot in the top 5 pieces of research I've read in recent memory.

Enjoy :-)

The Paper:
http://allaboutalpha.com/doc_bin/AIS%20conference%20proceedings%201207.pdf

Where I found it:
http://allaboutalpha.com/blog/2007/12/26/ineichen-looks-back-way-back-to-see-forward/

(Great blog, btw)

Looks like Obama, but then again, it looked like the Patriots too!

Lots of things can change, but right now it looks like Obama is leading the dems strongly and with either of the republicans, it may be Obama at the end.

The election has alot to do with policy, especially with all of the candidates stumping quite a bit about stimulus and bailing out the homeowner.  The perception of policy will move markets in different directions.  Equity and real estate are the ones I'm trying to understand.  Along with the dollar, I suppose. 

What if an Obama win reverses the housing slump, or significantly delays it?  What if the perception of a growth / bailout presidency takes hold?

Will funds being readied for upcoming Real Estate bargain hunting be prepared to change tack or will many take liberties with investment goals and standards??

The First Few Moments

Spinning around as a child.
The stopping is so fresh
and such a shock.
That's when the world changes and
you begin to find
what you've suddenly lost
- you.

Those first few moments are so blissful
that you barely get to know it,
before it disappears and 'you'
are back again.

Thats why we spin around as kids,
for that brief glimpse of 'unknowing'.

That brief glimpse without which,
you'd never have known,
that there is a 'unknowing'.

Thoughts on a price vector anomaly.

Hey, good to chat yest.  Quick thought on the high price / low price anomaly you mentioned you've seen (the positive alpha of (highest priced 20 - lowest priced 20(over $5)).....  Is there a survivorship bias in the low end?  If not, ie, persists over the most recent period and you've included stocks that were in that low price area during the test, then the other thought I had is that maybe its one or the other, ie are both ends of the price vector moving abnormally vs the universe or is it just the low end (my guess for what it ends up being is that the low end is providing most of the alpha [low%chg - univ%chg > high%chg - univ%chg] ).


It's possibly a real anomaly.  And it makes sense to some extent, b/c of some institutions' avoidance of low priced stocks, and other people's preference for lower priced stocks for 'big moves', causes there to be an artificial 'slippery spot' or boundary on the price vector where that price is - and many people use $5.  Which could explain the outperformance of stocks at just over $5.


I'll run a few studies on my end and have some screenshots for you.