Commuting on the Garden State Parkway
Recently, my commute has changed to driving the Garden State Parkway between Exit 131 and 171. As I stare at the car in front of me, lots of analogies to other complex systems pop up.
Before I go into that though, the traffic patterns themselves are very interesting. Lots of stop and go if you go during the bulge of rush hour. Which, because of the road's main function as a conduit to roads going East to NY, means that most people are getting on or off Route 280, Route 80, Route 78, Route 22, etc.. These roads are all pretty close to each other and make for a hellish time around the Newark exits.
Well, I now leave at 8:15 to go 40 miles on the Garden State Parkway and it is fabulous. No coming to a complete stop occasionally ON A HIGHWAY, no worrying about crazy tailgaters, no wondering if the guy behind you will stop in time. Just a nice steady 65 mph the whole way.
Clearly this is because most of those Hudson bound bulge is through the keyhole of Newark by then and the only people left on the road are NJ North South-ers like myself. Bliss!
Getting back to similarities with other complex systems, like equity markets, its easy to think of each lane as a sector or stock to invest in, and the traffic being other investors, riding the price of that stock, denotes as relative position to other lanes (since price is relative). The name of the game is getting ahead of everyone else - ie. capture alpha along with beta.
Everyone is trying to find a way to get into the faster moving lane, but there are costs due to traffic and crowding. Going with the currently fastest moving lane is a losing strategy and it quickly becomes clear that the game is more complex than that. It has hotspots and discernible patterns.
For example, one pattern is to go against instinct and stay in the right lane, the exit lane, at certain exits, like the for Route 280 - the drivers exiting end up getting out of the way and you pass everyone else who habitually stays away from exits. As soon as that Exit is passed though, its good to move to the far left, because the on-ramp from Route 280 immediately follows and those people merging into your stock, er lane, can cause turbulence which slows the flow.
Many, many other analogies follow, mostly concerning human tendencies around and reaction to large groups. Some concern the flow of capital through limited vehicles. An example is the fact that the best spot in the six lane carpet of cars moving down the highway is the trailing edge of an empty area - ie well behind the aggressive tailgaters and just ahead of some relaxed cruisers. This gives you plenty of time to stop, or switch out and the people behind you aren't stressing you out.
Most importantly, it lengthens your vista to the next curve and you can think strategically. Thats where the gains are. Thinking not about the nearby drivers, but the upcoming wave, hotspot or bulge.
Friday, December 07, 2007
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment